GLOBAL TRADE RECONFIGURATION: AI, Geo-economic Fragmentation, and the Future of Trade Finance
The global trade architecture is undergoing a fundamental transformation driven by the convergence of artificial intelligence (AI) deployment, Geo-economic fragmentation, and trade finance innovation. This paper introduces the Adaptive Trade Intelligence and Resilience (ATIR) framework, a six-pillar analytical model designed to evaluate and guide national and firm-level adaptation strategies in this rapidly evolving environment. Drawing on dynamic capability theory, complex adaptive systems (CAS), institutional economics, and realist international political economy (IPE), the ATIR framework integrates AI capability, Geo-economic alignment, financial innovation, supply chain resilience, regulatory adaptability, and sustainability integration into a unified assessment methodology. Employing a PRISMA-compliant systematic literature review of 847 publications (2018-2026) and an empirical validation using principal component analysis (PCA) across 42 economies, this study demonstrates that the ATIR composite index explains 73.6% of variance in trade resilience outcomes. Key findings reveal that: (1) AI adoption in trade finance has accelerated by 340% since 2020, yet remains concentrated in advanced economies; (2) Geo-economic fragmentation indices have risen by 67% since 2018, creating parallel trade networks; (3) the interaction effect between AI capability and financial innovation yields the strongest predictive power for trade adaptation (beta=0.42, p<0.001). The framework offers actionable policy recommendations for economies navigating the intersection of technological disruption and geopolitical realignment.